Methodology & sources
How these figures were calculated
The calculator combines two things: our own coached-cohort observations (for the reduction and quit rates), and country-level averages from public-health and occupational research (for the per-employee defaults). Below is each line, the formula behind it, and the source of the default.
The two headline rates — from practice data
Across coached cohorts, mean consumption reduction sits around 85% with a 75–85% planning range, and roughly 35% of enrolled employees achieve full cessation with a 25–35% planning range. These are practice observations from doctor-led coaching combined with behavioural support and pharmacotherapy guidance, not a published trial. They sit at the upper end of what large workplace interventions report (Cahill & Lancaster, Cochrane 2014), which is consistent with smaller cohorts and closer one-to-one structure.
The four ROI lines
1. Tobacco spend avoided
daily_spend × 365 × reduction_rate
Daily spend defaults come from country-level tobacco pricing (WHO Tobacco Atlas, local pack-pricing data, and — for shisha-heavy markets — café session pricing in UAE / Qatar / Saudi). Applied to the whole cohort because the cohort doesn't quit uniformly: some quit fully, some reduce. The 75–85% range is the cohort-weighted average drop in consumption.
2. Absenteeism (sick days recovered)
extra_sick_days × (annual_salary ÷ 240 working days) × reduction_rate
The 2–6 extra sick days per smoker per year is well-established. The Weng, Ali & Leonardi-Bee meta-analysis (Addiction, 2013) found smokers take ~33% more sick leave than non-smokers, with absolute differences in that range across the studies they aggregated. UK ONS and US BLS sickness-absence figures track close to those numbers.
3. Presenteeism (smoke-break time recovered)
smoke_break_minutes × annual_salary ÷ 480 × reduction_rate × capture_rate
The 15–30 minute range is consistent with Berman et al. 2014 (Tobacco Control), which estimated $5,816 per year in lost productivity per smoking employee in the US, driven largely by smoke-break time. Gulf defaults sit at the higher end (25 min) because workplace smoking norms are more permissive; Western defaults sit at 20 min. Realistic mode credits 100% of recovered time as productive; Conservative mode credits 50%, on the view that not every reclaimed minute converts cleanly to output.
4. Healthcare / insurance uplift
healthcare_uplift × reduction_rate
The per-smoker premium / claims uplift defaults are drawn from country-level data: CDC and Hockenberry et al. 2012 (American Journal of Preventive Medicine) for the US; Public Health England's Cost of Smoking to the NHS for the UK; published insurer actuarial data for the Gulf. Smokers cost employer health plans approximately 25–40% more than non-smokers depending on age and tenure; the absolute numbers per head vary widely by country, which is why we anchor them locally.
Programme cost and ROI multiple
Programme cost defaults to the local-currency equivalent of USD 15,000 — the standard annual price for our doctor-led corporate cohort. ROI multiple = total benefit ÷ programme cost. Adjust both fields freely; the calculator recomputes live.
The Conservative scenario
Conservative mode applies two adjustments to the Realistic baseline. First, presenteeism is credited at 50% — recognising that some of the reclaimed smoke-break time gets reabsorbed into other breaks, coffee runs, or conversation rather than landing as productive output. Second, the cohort is multiplied by 0.85, reflecting an honest planning assumption that ~15% of voluntarily-enrolled employees don't complete the full programme. Reduction and quit rates aren't moved — they're anchored to actual achieved data, and walking them back in "conservative" mode would misrepresent results that were earned.
What we're not counting
Long-tail healthcare savings (cardiac, COPD, oncology costs avoided over a 5–20 year horizon) — these are large but they aren't an annual line item the way this calculator works. Workplace fire and property insurance reductions in industries where smoking is a fire risk. Recruitment and retention effects. Secondhand-smoke health costs for family members. If anything, the year-one numbers shown are the floor, not the ceiling — they're the savings recovered this year, not the lifetime value of the change.
Selected references
- Weng SF, Ali S, Leonardi-Bee J (2013). Smoking and absence from work: systematic review and meta-analysis of occupational studies. Addiction, 108(2): 307–319. PubMed
- Berman M, Crane R, Seiber E, Munur M (2014). Estimating the cost of a smoking employee. Tobacco Control, 23(5): 428–433. PubMed
- Cahill K, Lancaster T (2014). Workplace interventions for smoking cessation. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Issue 2: CD003440. Cochrane
- Hartmann-Boyce J, Chepkin SC, Ye W, Bullen C, Lancaster T (2018). Nicotine replacement therapy versus control for smoking cessation. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Cochrane
- Hockenberry JM, Curry SJ, Fishman PA, et al. (2012). Healthcare costs around the time of smoking cessation. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 42(6): 596–601. PubMed
- World Health Organization. WHO Tobacco Atlas / WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic — country-level prevalence and pricing data. WHO
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Economic Trends in Tobacco. CDC
- Public Health England. Cost of Smoking to the NHS in England. gov.uk
If you'd like the underlying assumptions document or want a custom variant of this calculator built around your industry's wage data, get in touch via the contact page.
